The 2026 US Midterm Elections
- Status
- Tracking · Resolves Nov 3, 2026
- Event began
- Nov 3, 2026
- Theories tracked
- 9
- Last updated
- Jun 13, 2026, 2:00 AM
DAILY THEORY BRIEFING
Jun 13, 2026Trump's cratering independent support and an open Republican seat elevate the presidential-referendum and coalition-transfer theories to front-runner status.
THEORY BRIEFING
Republicans defend 53–47 in the Senate and ~218–217 in the House; Democrats need to flip three seats for the House majority.
Prediction Market Signal
Democrats control the House after the midterms?
83%Yes 82.5¢ · No 17.5¢
via Polymarket ↗since Dec 2025
$3,900,242 traded
Democrats control the Senate after the midterms?
44%▼ −1 pts 24hYes 43.5¢ · No 56.5¢
via Polymarket ↗since Dec 2025
$1,448,135 traded
Markets price outcomes. The Plausibility Index™ ranks explanations.
Poll spells disaster for Republicans in 2026 midterms | National | thecentersquare.com
A new poll signals a classic midterm backlash is brewing — here's why the party in power almost always pays at the ballot box, and what theory explains it.
Retiring House Republican worries his seat could flip blue - Daily Kos
A retiring Republican's fear that his "safe" seat could flip reveals how incumbent retirement cascades into electoral vulnerability — a textbook case of the political seatbelt effect.
Donald Trump's evangelical base may be cracking - Yahoo
When a coalition built on identity and moral authority starts fracturing, realignment theory and the psychology of group loyalty explain exactly why cracks appear — and why they're so hard to stop.
The State of the 2026 Midterms - The Preamble | Sharon McMahon
Early special-election results are firing up Democratic hopes for 2026 — but history warns that midterm "wave" signals can mislead as much as they motivate.
Trump's Support With Independents Craters, According to AP-NORC Polling
Trump's cratering independent support is a textbook case of political dealignment — and the college-education gap reveals exactly how identity, not just policy, now drives American voting blocs.
