2026 World Cup odds: France jumps Spain as new favorite, while England and USMNT rise
nytimes.com
Betting markets are live forecasting machines — and France leaping Spain as World Cup favorite reveals how odds aggregate collective belief, not just performance data.
Wisdom of CrowdsPrediction MarketsBayesian UpdatingEfficient Market Hypothesis
Theory Briefing
- France has overtaken Spain as the new 2026 World Cup betting favorite, reflecting a rapid shift in market sentiment.
- England and the USMNT have also risen in the odds, showing bettors are repricing multiple contenders simultaneously.
- Prediction markets convert millions of individual beliefs into a single probability signal — making them a real-world test of the Wisdom of Crowds theory.