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The Smartphone Theory of Birth Rate Decline Still Doesn't Hold Up - Yahoo

yahoo.com

A new NBER study keeps blaming smartphones for falling birth rates, but the same methodological cracks keep undermining the seductive narrative — here's why correlation still isn't causation.

Correlation vs. CausationConfirmation BiasDemographic Transition TheoryTechnological Determinism
The Smartphone Theory of Birth Rate Decline Still Doesn't Hold Up - Yahoo

Theory Briefing

  • A new NBER study links smartphone adoption to declining fertility rates, but critics say the causal logic remains unproven.
  • The research repeats flaws found in prior phone-fertility studies, raising questions about confounding variables and data interpretation.
  • The persistence of this theory illustrates how confirmation bias and media appeal can keep a weak hypothesis alive in policy debate.