Trump's Support With Independents Craters, According to AP-NORC Polling
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Trump's cratering independent support is a textbook case of political dealignment — and the college-education gap reveals exactly how identity, not just policy, now drives American voting blocs.
Political DealignmentMedian Voter TheoremSocial Identity TheoryRetrospective Voting
Theory Briefing
- Only 3 in 10 college-educated independents viewed Trump positively before he returned to office, a gap now widening further.
- The collapse among independents — the decisive swing bloc — mirrors dealignment theory, where voters detach from party-adjacent figures under pressure.
- AP-NORC polling signals trouble for the 2026 midterms, as independent defection historically predicts significant congressional seat losses for the president's party.