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Why MH370 Still Has Not Been Found After 12 Years

aviationbusinessme.com

MH370's 12-year cold case is a masterclass in how search theory breaks down when the evidence itself is uncertain — and why the ocean keeps winning.

Bayesian Search TheorySignal Detection TheoryConfirmation BiasOccam's Razor

Theory Briefing

  • Ocean Infinity scanned 7,571 sq km of the Indian Ocean and still found nothing, shrinking but not solving the search zone.
  • Every failed sweep updates the probability map — Bayesian Search Theory forces investigators to revise where the plane most likely isn't.
  • With no wreckage on the seabed after 12 years, confirmation bias in early flight-path models may have sent every search to the wrong place.